Sreekanth K Manikandan and Giovanni Volpe
arXiv: 2608.23394
Equilibrium free-energy differences can be measured from nonequilibrium work fluctuations using fluctuation theorems, such as the Jarzynski equality and the Crooks fluctuation theorem. However, these approaches become statistically inefficient in high-dissipation regimes because their convergence requires trajectories with negative entropy production, events that occur exponentially rarely. Here, we demonstrate that repeated measurements of trajectory fluctuations are sufficient to determine entropy production without relying on such rare events, or to determine a lower bound on it when only partial measurements are available. This information then yields exact estimates of free-energy differences, or rigorous bounds. We validate this approach, named EquiNET, with numerical simulations, including one of biomolecular folding and unfolding, showing that it recovers accurate free-energy estimates even in regimes where conventional approaches fail.